• Weekly forex data: stimulus still in view

    The obvious pivot point on this chart is the 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement area, i.e. complete retracement of all the euro’s gains in March 2020. A clear breakout below $1.655 might trigger another leg down over the next few weeks. On the other hand, with price having been generally oversold or close to it for a number of months, this might be a logical place for a bounce.

    None of this week’s data are guaranteed to be catalysts given that the focus now is on inflation and sentiment, but the sheer volume of key releases from New Zealand means that the Kiwi dollar is likely to be highly active over the next few days. While the RBNZ’s meeting will probably bring some short-term volatility, a significant change to monetary policy or economic projections is not favourable. Retail sales, balance of trade and various other figures from New Zealand could provide short-term opportunities in both directions.

    Key data this week

    Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

    Monday 22 February

    45 GMT: New Zealand annual retail sales (Q4) – consensus 7.6%, previous 8.3%
    45 GMT: New Zealand quarterly retail sales (Q4) – consensus 2.5%, previous 28%

    Tuesday 23 February

    00 GMT: eurozone-wide annual core inflation (final, January) – consensus 1.4%, previous 0.2%
    00 GMT: eurozone-wide annual inflation (final, January) – consensus 0.9%, previous negative 0.3%

    Wednesday 24 February

    from 1.00 GMT: meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
    00 GMT: German annual GDP growth (final, Q4) – consensus negative 3.9%, previous negative 4%
    00 GMT: German quarterly GDP growth (final, Q4) – consensus 0.1%, previous 8.5%

    Thursday 25 February

    00 GMT: ANZ business confidence (final, February) – consensus 11.8, previous 9.4
    30 GMT: New Zealand private capital expenditure (Q4) – consensus nil, previous negative 3%
    00 GMT: German GfK consumer confidence (March) – consensus negative 14.3, previous negative 15.6
    45 GMT: French consumer confidence (February) – consensus 92, previous 92
    45 GMT: New Zealand balance of trade (January) – consensus negative NZ$800 million, previous NZ$17 million

    Friday 26 February

    45 GMT: French quarterly GDP growth (final, Q4) – consensus negative 1.3%, previous 18.7%
    00 GMT: French unemployment benefit claims (January) – consensus 27,000, previous 5,000
    00 GMT: French total jobseekers (January) – consensus 3.61 million, previous 3.59 million

    Bitcoin-dollar, daily

    Bitcoin has moved down somewhat so far this week as some participants appear to be concerned about overvaluation. However, as with any cryptocurrency, fundamental analysis is never much more than guesswork.

    From a technical point of view, a consolidation had been coming for some time. Price has extended strongly beyond the weekly Fibonacci fan and remained overbought or close to it since basically the beginning of Q4 2020. The initial support might come from the 23.6% weekly Fibonacci retracement area just above $45,000. However, it is of course possible that many new buyers might want to enter after even a small retracement.

    Any further news this week about the American government’s new fiscal stimulus will certainly be important. Equally, data on inflation in the eurozone (see above) might affect bitcoin given its increasing role as a hedge. Ultimately, though, trying to analyse bitcoin through the lens of political news and economic data is extremely difficult.

    Dollar-baht, daily

    The dollar appears to have stabilised against the baht since the fourth quarter of 2020, The decrease in political uncertainty in Thailand over the last few months has also reduced negative sentiment on THB, while some positivity for the dollar from rising yields of American bonds has played a role in preventing further losses here.

    Summer 2020’s important support around 31 has clearly been broken, with the emphasis now on the 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement area as above with EURNZD. If this is clearly breached, one might expect the price of dollar-baht to track the 61.8% area of the weekly Fibonacci fan more closely. Despite price having now moved above the 50 SMA from Bands, the signal from moving averages remains clearly ‘sell’.

    Numerous figures are due this week from Thailand and a few significant ones from the USA. Thai balance of trade on Tuesday morning probably has the biggest potential to drive a breakout from the recent range, but Thursday and Friday’s releases might also be key clues as to the baht’s direction in the next few weeks.

    Key data this week

    Bold indicates the most important releases for this symbol.

    Tuesday 23 February

    30 GMT: Thai balance of trade (January) – consensus $70 million, previous $960 million

    Thursday 25 February

    00 GMT: Thai annual industrial production (January) – consensus negative 5.3%, previous negative 2.4%
    30 GMT: Thai private investment (January) – consensus negative 0.3%, previous 3.6%
    30 GMT: Thai current account (January) – consensus $100 million, previous negative $700 million
    30 GMT: Thai annual retail sales (December) – consensus negative 2.5%, previous negative 2.7%
    30 GMT: American durable goods orders (January) – consensus 1.1%, previous 0.2%
    30 GMT: initial jobless claims (20 February) – consensus 838,000, previous 861,000

    Friday 26 February

    00 GMT: Thai unemployment rate (January) – consensus 1.9%, previous 1.5%,
    30 GMT: American personal spending (January) – consensus 2.5%, previous negative 0.2%
    30 GMT: American personal income (January) – consensus 9.5%, previous 0.6%

    Disclaimer: opinions are personal to the author and do not reflect the opinions of Exness or LeapRate.

    The post Weekly forex data: stimulus still in view appeared first on LeapRate.

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