USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls committing at a 61.8% Fib support

In the previous analysis, USD/JPY: Something for both the bears and the bulls, the structure has been identified on both the weekly and daily time frames, with a bias to the downside and 105.95. 

The price has indeed respected both structures and the downside target has been reached:

(Prior analysis, marking out the structures)

Where now?

It would be textbook stuff should the price simply pick up all of the liquidity at this confluence juncture of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and simply continue in its upside trajectory, extending the late July reversal.

From a COT perspective, it would also mirror the reduction of net JPY longs.

However, there are no indications, yet, from the longer-term nor lower time frames that the pair is set on such a trajectory.

Symmetrical triangle 

While the price is below the red weekly resistance line, there can be no bullish bias and the symmetrical triangle suggests the breakout can go either way.

4-HR picture

There is nothing bullish on the four-hour time frame yet, not while MACD is below zero and price below key resistances.

Price can easily retrace to the first resistance line in a correction prior to starting a fresh four-hour bearish impulse.

However, on a break of the resistances, with MACD turning bullish, the bulls will be back in charge seeking to extend the late July trend on the higher time frames on a break of the weekly 106.70 resistance. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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