Forex Today: Gold up, dollar down amid stalled fiscal talks, vaccine hopes, ahead of jobless claims

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, August 6:

The US dollar remains on the back foot while gold shines, following experienced on Thursday, partially in response to hints of weak Non-Farm Payrolls. US jobless are eyed on Thursday. Hopes of a coronavirus vaccine boost markets while ongoing fiscal talks in Washington are eyed. 

Worrying data: ADP’s private-sector jobs report has shown an increase of only 167,000 jobs in July against 1.5 million expected. While the ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index beat estimates with 58.1 points, the employment component’s fall implies weak hiring in America’s services sector. 

See:US Data Analysis: Big jobs number? Negative NFP looks more likely, trends could extend in gold, dollar

Weekly jobless claims do not refer to the week when Non-Farm Payrolls were conducted, but are still watched as a snapshot of the labor market. The economic calendar is pointing to a fall in both initial and continuing claims.

See US Initial Jobless Claims: Can claims and payrolls rise at the same time?

Talks between Republicans and Democrats on the next fiscal relief package continue in Washington and after optimistic tones, reports suggest the sides are far apart. According to Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell, a deal depends on Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Donald Trump.

The White House has suggested Trump is considering an executive order to break the deadlock. Markets remain optimistic that both sides will agree to a large stimulus deal, including maintaining most of the critical federal unemployment benefits. 

Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland said that uncertainty about jobless support is a risk. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks later in the day.

The S&P 500 Index has continued inching its way toward the all-time highs, supported by hopes for a vaccine. Anthony Fauci, America’s top infectious disease expert, said it is likely that the US will have tens of millions of doses by the end of the year and a billion by the end of 2021. 

Novavax has been the latest to report promising results in developing COVID-19 immunization. US coronavirus cases and deaths are gradually dropping from the recent highs.

Gold extended its gains on Wednesday, hitting a new all-time high at $2,055.65. The precious metal is benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus. Silver has topped $27. In addition to the yellow metal’s drivers, XAG/USD benefits from silver’s usage in environmental technologies. 

The Bank of England has left interest rates unchanged as expected and released a relatively optimistic quarterly report. That includes an upgrade economic forecasts, noting robust high-frequency spending indicators, and also refraining from backing negative rates. GBP/USD jumped toward 1.32, hitting the highest since March. 

See BOE Quick Analysis: Three pound-positive on Super Thursday open door to new highs

Sino-American tensions remain elevated after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo urged caution when traveling to China and laid out ideas for a "clean network," referring to tech dealings with China. Microsoft continues talks with ByteDance to acquire TikTok, a popular Chinese social network.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.19 after nearing that round level on Wednesday. Coronavirus cases are rising in Spain, France, and other countries, but remain far below the peaks.

AUD/USD is at around 0.72. Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said that COVID-19 will cost the nation at least A$7 billion. 

Cryptocurrencies have been consolidating after making a movie to the upside, with Bitcoin trading around $11,600 and Ethereum closer to $400. 

Looking ahead: US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: A dual-track labor market or imperfections in the data?

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