AUD/USD: Challenges to risk probe the bulls attacking 0.7300

  • AUD/USD jumps 15-pips at the week’s start after ignoring the red line during the previous week.
  • Upbeat comments from Aussie PM Morrison and Chinese President Xi Jinping favored the early bulls despite virus woes, Brexit worries.
  • US election jitters, Sino-American tussle and the stimulus deadlock challenge the optimists.
  • No major data on the radar but Fed Chair Powell’s speech and risk catalysts will be the key.

AUD/USD seesaws around 0.7290 after the initial 16-pip rise to 0.7303 amid Monday’s Asian session. In doing so, the pair begins the week on the positive side following a minor miss to the negative weekly close printed during the first two weeks of September. The quote seems to have initially cheered upbeat comments from the Aussie Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Chinese President Xi Jinping published during the weekend. However, fears of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and downbeat catalysts from America, not to forget the UK, weigh on the risk catalysts and also to the Aussie major.

Domestic fundamentals overrule macro challenges…

With Aussie PM Morrison’s expectations that the recovery in COVID-19 conditions in Victoria will strengthen the job numbers seem to have helped AUD/USD to extend the last week’s mildly positive attitude. Also supporting the bulls could be comments from China’s Xi who said, “China’s economy remains resilient and there are ample policy tools at Beijing’s disposal despite the rising external risk.” As Beijing be the largest customer of Canberra, positive statements from the dragon nation are always welcomed by the pair buyers.

On the contrary, the UK is heading towards stricter virus-led restrictions amid fears of heavy resurgence whereas the US and Iran are again at loggerheads. Further, the American congress members are still undecided over the much-awaited stimulus package while China-US tension keeps flashing mixed clues with the latest one-week stop to the TikTok-Oracle deal offering a sigh of relief to the dragon.

During the last weekend, the Fed-led optimism joined upbeat employment data from Australia to keep AUD/USD on a positive side. Though, Wall Street had to suffer and so do the US 10-year treasury yields.

Moving on, the economic calendar has nothing major to cheer and hence the key risk catalysts like a virus, Brexit, US stimulus and the Sin-American tussle will be in the spotlight. Though, Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at 14:00 GMT will be the key to watch. Traders will look for additional clues of the Fed’s optimism while the subject matter is rule-making for the Community Reinvestment Act.

Technical analysis

Unless breaking the 0.7340-46 area, comprising August 31 low and highs marked since September 03, the risk of AUD/USD price drop to refresh the monthly low of 0.7191 can’t be ruled out. However, a 21-day SMA level of 0.7277 can offer intermediate strong support during the pair’s weakness.

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